Payroll Employment
A little longer perspective helps to show the context for the most recent changes in payroll employment.
March - May
Consecutive monthly payroll employment increases of
353,000, 346,000, and 248,000 for March, April, and May add up to 947,000 new jobs.
February - Minimal Job Growth
A 21,000 increase in payroll employment is again far below expectations.
January -
More Disappointment
The 112,000 increase in payroll employment fell short of expectations that had hoped for a gain of at least 165,000 jobs.
December - Frozen Job Growth
The 1,000 increase in payroll employment is an even bigger disappointment than the November figure. This increase is 149,000 jobs short of what a reasonable increase might have looked like.
November - Disappointment
The 57,000 increase in employment in November fell far short of expectations. With real GDP growing at 8.2% for the previous quarter and with jobs increasing by 126,000 in October, analysts were looking for a 150,000 employment increase in November.
October - Good News
Employment increased by 126,000 jobs in October, but the big boost to the economic outlook was revised data for August and September. Upward revisions for those two months turned a decrease of 41,000 for August and a small increase of 57,000 for September into an increase of 35,000 for August and a healthy increase of 125,000 for September. These two revisions added 220,000 jobs to the total employment statistic.
Revisions of this magnitude are not uncommon as more data becomes available. The Bureau of Labor Statistics actually estimates that a 90% confidence interval for a given month's first employment estimate (household survey) is plus or minus 290,000 jobs.