Payroll Employment
Payroll employment fell another 20,000
in April, but expectations were for worse.
With back-to-back 0.6% increases in real GDP,
the economy is limping along.
Previous months:
Given that payroll employment is down
80,000 for March, the consensus opinion
will be that the recession has arrived
(unless, of course, better news turns up).
The likelihood that we are seeing the
beginning of a recession rose sharply
on news that payroll employment fell
63,000 in February.
A slight decrease in payroll employment
for January is partially offset by an
upward revision for December. The result
is not a strong sign of a recession.
Job growth has turned flat, up only 18,000
for December, but the weather could have
been a factor. Warnings of an impending
recession, nonetheless, are common.
A gain of 94,000 for November is
big enough to keep concerns of a recession
in check despite losses in construction
and manufacturing.
The 166,000 gain in jobs for October is
about as likely to stand unrevised as was
the 4,000 drop for August. In any case,
a slowdown is not in sight.
If the negative 4,000 change in payroll
employment for August is a sign of
a sea change in the economy, the fall
could bring a weaker job market.
Jobs growth of 92,000 for July falls
below expectations, hinting at a weaker
economy than earlier figures would suggest.
A 132,000 gain for June plus
upward revisions for April and May
continue exceed modest expectations.
These figures do not signal the
slowdown some expect.
Employment bounced up 157,000,
surprising analysts and contradicting
recent slow GDP growth figures.
Nonfarm payroll employment "edged up"
88,000, reflecting weakening signs in
the economy.
The March increase of 180,000 jobs
(and especially the 56,000 increase in
construction employment) surprised
forecasters.
The February increase of 97,000 and
the revised January increase of 146,000
are not large, but they also do not clearly
signal a recession.
A modest gain of 111,000 is not
impressive, but the upward revision to
an increase of 206,000 for December tempered
reaction to the latest month's figure.
A gain of 167,000 for December is not
large, but it is not zero either. The increase
does exceed expectations a bit, and an upward
revision for November is also good news.
A gain of 132,000 for November is a
little above expectations and certainly
not suggestive of the onset of a recession.
The original September gain of 51,000 has now
been revised to a gain of 203,000, raising
questions about the recent reliability of
the initial estimates.
The gain of 92,000 jobs for October
is less noticeable than the revision
of the September data from an initial
gain of only 51,000 to a revised jump
of 148,000. Together with the projected
810,000 benchmark revision announced last
month, these figures suggest that
measurement problems are playing a larger
than normal role in the recent data.
An increase of 51,000 jobs for
September disappoints the stock
market, which only recently returned
(for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, at least)
to the peak reached in January 2000.
An increase of 128,000 meets
expectations, which were low.
More of the same.
An increase of 113,000 in payroll
employment is not negative, but
it does not meet expectations
and it is not large enough to
match growth in the labor force.
Payroll employment is up 121,000,
which is not a sign of strength
in the economy. This is the third
month of modest increases.
A gain of just 75,000 jobs
following a small gain (revised
downward) of 126,000 last month
could be a significant change in
trend. Bond yields took an immediate
turn downward.
Payroll employment growth of just 138,000
is troubling if it represents a change in
trend, but it will take more than one
month to determine if this is really
more than a technical artifact.
A gain in payroll employment
of 211,000 nearly matches the
revised figure of 225,000 for
February.
February's job growth is 243,000.
Aded to growth of 170,00 in January,
this figure maintains the recent
rate of growth.
Growth of 193,000 jobs is not bad,
and November is now revised upward to
a gain of 354,000.
A soft gain of 108,000 jobs plus
an upward revision of 90,000 for
November add up a model gain.
The 2 million increase for 2005 matches
the 2.2 increase for 2004
A gain of 215,000 is just about
what was expected and is very much
in line with average gains earlier
in the year. Coupled with a surprisingly
large 4.3% gain in third quarter GDP,
the growth in the economy look solid.
A small increase of 56,000 jobs
and a revised loss of 8,000 in
September temper confidence in the
economy's growth rate. While GDP
continues to grow, job growth needs
to increase substantially just to keep
up with population growth.
Payroll employment losses of just 35,000
suggest that the effect of hurricanes
was not as severe as some had expected.
Upward revisions for July and August
contribute to the feeling that next month
could see a return to reasonable growth.
A 169,000 gain is a little short of
expectations, but the upward revision
(from 207,000 to 242,000) for July
mitigates the impact. The numbers
for September will be heavily influenced
by Hurricane Katrina and nearly worthless
for judging trends.
A 207,000 increase in payroll employment,
while not impressive, is strong enough
to rattle the stock market with fears
of faster interest rate increases.
June's 146,000 increase in
payroll employment about keeps
up with growth in the labor
force,but nothing more.
Nonfarm payroll employment
up 274,000 plus upward revisions
for February and March are good news.
Will it continue?
A payroll employment increase of
just 78,000 plus falling long-term
interest rates are widely taken to
be signs of a softening economy.
An increase of only 110,000 in payroll
employment clearly disappointed people
hoping to see stronger growth.
An increase of 262,000 for February
is widely regarded as "just right":
large enough to show strong growth,
but not large enough to trigger inflation.
Increases of 146,000 for January and 133,000
(revised) for December fail to meet the level
of, perhaps, 200,000 per month that would
signal solid growth.
A 157,000 increase in payroll employment for December,
combined with an upward revision to a 137,000 gain
last month, is not stunningly good news, but does
not seem too disappointing either.
There is nothing too surprising about the relatively
small 112,000 increase in payroll employment for November.
The October increase (revised downward to a 303,000 increase)
was large enough to make a smaller increase understandable
in light of month-to-month fluctuations in the survey.
The real direction of the trend should be more apparent in
January and February.
The increase of 337,000 in payroll employment for October
is double the expected number and a welcome boost to a
series that looked substantially weaker last month.
A 96,000 increase is not a good sign for the trend in payroll
employment. A reading closer to 200,000 would have been much more
positive. Plus, the usual October revision in the historical statistics
showed an increase of 236,000 jobs, which is an increase, but not
as large an increase as some had hoped for.
Increases in payroll employment for March, April, and May
show clear signs that the long awaited turnaround has
arrived. The 112,000 increase in payroll employment
for June, however, touched off a chorus of caution
on Wall Street. The 32,000 increase for July adds to
worries that the recent upward trend may not be on
completely solid ground.
Now, a 144,000 increase for August and a
revision for July that shows an increase of
73,000 suggest the upward trend may be back on track.